To examine association between vital sign abnormalities in the emergency department (ED) and early death after ED discharge, we performed a matched case-control study. Conditional logistic regression showed that presence of any vital sign abnormality at ED discharge was significantly associated with over three-fold increase in likelihood of death within 15 days of ED discharge (OR: 3.06, 95%CI: 2.81-4.48). Even small changes were associated with increased risk: every additional beat increase in heart rate conferred additional risk (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.02-1.06), while every additional oxygen saturation percentage point was protective (0.89, 0.80-0.98). However, none of these vital sign abnormalities was a good predictor of early death; there was poor discrimination and substantial overlap in values between cases and controls.

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